Murmansk Aurora Forecast —
Will You See the Northern Lights Tonight?

Live conditions for aurora hunting in Murmansk: current Kp index, today's activity, cloud cover and moon phase. Data pulls automatically from NOAA and Open-Meteo.

Tonight's Aurora Chance
Current Kp Index

Kp measures global geomagnetic activity (0–9). At Murmansk's latitude, Kp 2–3 is enough for visible aurora. Kp 4+ means bright displays even through urban glow.

Today's Kp Activity

Measured Kp values for today in 3-hour intervals (UTC). Empty cells = data not yet available for that period. For a multi-day outlook, see the NOAA 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast ↗.

Extended Aurora Forecast

NOAA Kp forecast in 3-hour UTC slots for the next 3 days. Each cell is colour-coded: ■ Kp≥3, ■ Kp≥2, ■ calm.

NOAA OVATION model — real-time aurora oval, updated every 30 minutes. Green/yellow band = where aurora is most likely visible right now.

NOAA OVATION aurora oval — northern hemisphere forecast
Updates every 30 min

Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — OVATION Prime model. Full forecast ↗

27-Day Kp Outlook
Kp 4–5 Storm Kp 3 Active Kp 2 Moderate Kp 0–1 Calm ▲ Today

Each bar = daily peak Kp — the maximum Kp expected over 24 hours, not the current reading. Today's current Kp (shown above) may differ from today's peak. Based on solar rotation cycle — patterns repeat every ~27 days.

⚠ Example: today's bar = Kp 4 (predicted daily max) while current Kp = 2.0 — both correct, different metrics
Cloud Cover — Kola Peninsula

Clouds — not geomagnetics — are the real enemy of aurora hunters. The Kola Peninsula's weather is highly local: solid cloud over Murmansk often means clear sky 50–100 km inland.

Moon Phase Tonight
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Calculating…

A bright full moon washes out faint auroras, though strong displays (Kp 4+) remain visible. The darkest, most contrast-rich skies come within a week of the new moon.

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Forecast Looks Bad? That's Exactly Why Guides Exist

On a typical "cloudy" night in Murmansk, our guides check satellite imagery, pick the gap in the cloud field — sometimes 120 km away — and get guests under clear sky while independent travelers wait in vain outside their hotels. A poor city forecast is not a reason to cancel; it's a reason to hunt.

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FAQ — Aurora Forecasting in Murmansk

Kp forecasts are reliable in broad terms 1–3 days ahead, but exact timing within a night is impossible to predict — the aurora can flare for 20 minutes and vanish. That's why hunts last 4–6 hours: patience is part of the method.
Kp 2–3 is sufficient — Murmansk lies directly under the auroral oval at 69°N. This level of activity occurs on the majority of nights during the season.
Most commonly between 21:00 and 02:00, with a statistical peak around magnetic midnight (~22:30–23:30 local). During the polar night (December–early January) displays can start as early as 16:00–17:00.
It weakens faint displays but doesn't stop the show: moderate and strong auroras (Kp 3+) are clearly visible even on a full moon, and moonlit snowy landscapes make for beautiful aurora photos.
Subscribe to our Telegram channel — we post real-time alerts on active nights during the season, plus each evening's hunting verdict.